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《黑天鹅-如何应对不可知的未来》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)((美)纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布)英文文字版[PDF]

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  • 摘要:
    出版社Random House
    发行时间2007年04月17日
    语言英文
  • 时间: 2010/03/23 11:25:21 发布 | 2010/03/23 11:25:31 更新
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中文名黑天鹅-如何应对不可知的未来
原名The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
资源格式PDF
版本英文文字版
出版社Random House
书号978-1400063512
发行时间2007年04月17日
地区美国
语言英文
简介

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内容简介:

本书讲的是在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前,欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的,“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语,用来指不可能存在的事物,但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。黑天鹅的存在寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件,它在意料之外,却又改变一切。人类总是过度相信经验,而不知道一只黑天鹅的出现就足以颠覆一切。然而,无论是在对股市的预期,还是政府的决策中,黑天鹅都是无法预测的。“9·11”事件、美国的次级贷危机、我国的雪灾,都是如此。生活中,随机性随处可见,在资本市场也是一样。人们总是以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释不可预测的事件;即便是精于算计的专业人士,也难保不被随机性愚弄,其实我们应该做的是顺应这种不可知的未来。本书会教你改变自己的思维方式,把握黑天鹅带来的机会,采取应对策略,从中受益。这本书将改变我们对世界、人性和金钱的看法。

荣获:第一财经日报2008十大商业图书

获奖辞:2008年,我们恰逢5•12汶川大地震、全球金融风暴等“黑天鹅”事件。《黑天鹅》适时出版,唤醒人们走出对随机事件的无视甚至无知。

作者简介:

纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb),一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家,又是经验主义者,又是理智的数理证券交易员,目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》(Fooled by Randomness)以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。

内容截图:

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目录

Prologue xvii
On the Plumage of Birds xvii
What You Do Not Know xix
Experts and "Empty Suits" XX
Learning to Learn xxi
A New Kind of Ingratitude xxii
Life Is Very Unusual xxiv
Plato and the Nerd XXV
Too Dull to Write About xxvi
The Bottom Line xxvii
Chapters Map xxviii
PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION 1
Chapter 1 : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 3
Anatomy of a Black Swan 3
On Walking Walks 6
"Paradise" Evaporated 7
The Starred Night 7
History and the Triplet of Opacity 8
Nobody Knows What's Going On 9
History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps 10
x CONTENTS
Dear Diary: On History Running Backward 12
Education in a Taxicab 14
Clusters 15
Where Is the Show? 17
83/4 Lbs Later 18
The Four-Letter Word of Independence 20
Limousine Philosopher 21
Chapter 2: Yevgenia's Black Swan 23
Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute 26
The Best (Worst) Advice 26
Beware the Scalable 28
The Advent of Scalability 29
Scalability and Globalization 31
Travels Inside Mediocristan 32
The Strange Country of Extremistan 33
Extremistan and Knowledge 34
Wild and Mild 35
The Tyranny of the Accident 35
Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 38
How to Learn from the Turkey 40
Trained to Be Dull 43
A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge 44
A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem 45
Sextus the (Alas) Empirical 46
Algazel 47
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion 48
J Don't Want to Be a Turkey 49
They Want to Live in Mediocristan 49
Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 51
Zoogles Are Not All Boogies 53
Evidence 55
Negative Empiricism 56
Counting to Three 58
Saw Another Red Mini! 59
Not Everything
Back to Mediocristan
Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy
On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes
Splitting Brains
A Little More Dopamine
Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule
A Better Way to Die
Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past
The Madman's Narrative
Narrative and Therapy
To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision
Dispassionate Science
The Sensational and the Black Swan
Black Swan Blindness
The Pull of the Sensational
The Shortcuts
Beware the Brain
How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy
Chapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope
Peer Cruelty
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Nonlinearities
Process over Results
Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards
The Antechamber of Hope
Inebriated by Hope
The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
When You Need the Bastiani Fortress
El desierto de los târtaros
Bleed or Blowup
Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:
The Problem of Silent Evidence
The Story of the Drowned Worshippers
The Cemetery of Letters
xii CONTENTS
How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps
A Health Club for Rats
Vicious Bias
More Hidden Applications
The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body
What You See and What You Don't See
Doctors
The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova
"I Am a Risk Taker"
I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias
The Cosmetic Because
Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Fat Tony
Non-Brooklyn John
Lunch at Lake Como
The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Gambling with the Wrong Dice
Wrapping Up Part One
The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface
Distance from Primates
PART TWO: WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT
From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré
Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction
On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count
Black Swan Blindness Redux
Guessing and Predicting
Information Is Bad for Knowledge
The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit
What Moves and What Does Not Move
How to Have the Last Laugh
Events Are Outlandish
Herding Like Cattle
I Was "Almost" Right
Reality? What For?
"Other Than That," It Was Okay
C O N T E N T S xiii
The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets 158
The Character of Prediction Errors 159
Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep 160
Get Another Job 163
At JFK 163
Chapter 11 : How to Look for Bird Poop 165
How to Look for Bird Poop 165
Inadvertent Discoveries 166
A Solution Waiting for a Problem 169
Keep Searching 170
How to Predict Your Predictions! 171
The Nth Billiard Ball 174
Third Republic-Style Decorum 174
The Three Body Problem 176
They Still Ignore Hayek 179
How Not to Be a Nerd 181
A cademic Libertarianism 183
Prediction and Free Will 183
The Grueness of Emerald 185
That Great Anticipation Machine 189
Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream 190
Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat 191
Epistemocracy 192
The Past's Past, and the Past's Future 193
Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness 194
Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies 195
The Melting Ice Cube 196
Once Again, Incomplete Information 197
What They Call Knowledge 198
Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You
Cannot Predict? 201
Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap 201
Being a Fool in the Right Places 203
Be Prepared 203
The Idea of Positive Accident 203
Volatility and Risk of Black Swan 204
xiv CONTENTS
Barbell Strategy
"Nobody Knows Anything"
The Great Asymmetry
PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back
The World Is Unfair
The Matthew Effect
Lingua Franca
Ideas and Contagions
Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan
A Brooklyn Frenchman
The Long Tail
Naïve Globalization
Reversals Away from Extremistan
Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud
The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian
The Increase in the Decrease
The Mandelbrotian
What to Remember
Inequality
Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule
Grass and Trees
How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe
Love of Certainties
How to Cause Catastrophes
Quételet's Average Monster
Golden Mediocrity
God's Error
Poincaré to the Rescue
Eliminating Unfair Influence
"The Greeks Would Have Deified It"
"Yes/No" Only Please
A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve
Comes From
C O N T E N T S xv
Those Comforting Assumptions 250
"The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" 251
Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness 253
The Poet of Randomness 253
The Platonicity of Triangles 256
The Geometry of Nature 256
Fractality 257
A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan 259
Pearls to Swine 260
The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) 262
The Problem of the Upper Bound 266
Beware the Precision 266
The Water Puddle Revisited 267
From Representation to Reality 268
Once Again, Beware the Forecasters 270
Once Again, a Happy Solution 270
Where Is the Gray Swan? 272
Chapter 17: Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 274
Only Fifty Years 275
The Clerks' Betrayal 275
Anyone Can Become President 277
More Horror 278
Confirmation 281
It Was Just a Black Swan 281
How to "Prove" Things 282
Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony 286
Ludic Fallacy Redux 286
Find the Phony 287
Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? 288
The Problem of Practice 289
How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin? 289
Where Is Popper When You Need Him? 290
The Bishop and the Analyst 291
Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism 292
xvi CONTENTS
293
Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295
When Missing a Train Is Painless 297
The End 297
Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans 299
Acknowledgments 301
Glossary 307
Notes 311
Bibliography 331
Index 359

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